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ELECTION - 2 days from today

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2010

TURNOUT IS THE KEY – AT 8:17 P.M. ET:  Polls are polls, but, as one of the most worn clichés in politics has it, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. 

Everything depends on turnout.  The projections, for our side, look good:

Pew Research Center's final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday's midterm elections. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50%-to-40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

COMMENT:  Of course, we hope the weather helps us on Tuesday.  Is it sacrilegious to pray for blizzards and locusts in certain coastal areas?  If it is, we'll settle for heavy rain and punishing winds.

By the way, there is a constant undercurrent of concern about voter fraud.  Look for charges of fraud Tuesday night.  The usual suspects are St. Louis and Chicago, but allegations of "irregularities" are already popping up around the country.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

THIS IS WHAT DEATH ROW MUST FEEL LIKE – AT 7:48 P.M. ET:  The thinking in political circles this Sunday night is that Democrats are in for unpleasantries on Tuesday.  And the pessimism seems to deepen with the hour.  From The Politico:

Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted and strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there’s nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election Day to unfold.

There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.

While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.

A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.

All spoke to the grimness of the mood.

And...

Already, the finger-pointing is beginning. With outside conservative groups pouring millions of dollars into races across the country, some operatives singled out liberal interest groups for not engaging in the election...

...But, most of the consultants said, much of the post-election scrutiny would surround President Barack Obama and a White House political operation that over the past two years struggled to sell an ambitious agenda that turned out to be radioactive to a wide swath of the electorate.

“Here’s the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an embracing of Republicans. It’s a rejection of Democrats,” said Andrew Myers, a veteran Democratic pollster who worked on several House campaigns.

COMMENT:   What is remarkable is that the arrogance of the Democrats, the president in particular, seems to have gotten worse during the campaign.  The Dems seem to be saying, "Who are those peasants out there?  Who let them vote?  Who let them speak?"  Attitudes like that do not endear a party to the public.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

THIS IS REMARKABLE – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  It's understandable that Republicans and many independents would be falling away from Obama.  But Democrats?  From the Washington Post:

Democratic voters are closely divided over whether President Obama should be challenged within the party for a second term in 2012, an Associated Press-Knowledge Networks Poll finds.

A real Democratic challenge to Obama seems unlikely at this stage, and his reelection bid is a long way off. But the findings underscore how disenchanted his party has grown heading into the congressional elections Tuesday.

The AP-KN poll has tracked a group of people and their views since the beginning of the 2008 presidential campaign. Among Democrats, 47 percent say Obama should be challenged for the 2012 nomination and 51 percent say he should not be opposed. Those favoring a contest include most who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's unsuccessful faceoff against Obama for the 2008 nomination.

I hate to bring up an awkward subject, but I wonder how the poll breaks down racially.  It was recently noted that 91 percent of African Americans support Obama, contrasted with 37 percent of whites.  I wonder if a poll taken only of Democrats would reflect this division.  In other words, it's possible that a majority of white Democrats would favor a challenge to Obama, suggesting a potentially tense racial climate. 

Among all 2008 voters, 51 percent say he deserves to be defeated in November 2012 while 47 percent support his reelection - essentially a tie.

COMMENT:  Obviously, these figures can change dramatically by 2012, and may well change in the president's favor if the economy turns around.  But for president to suffer such disillusionment within his own party this soon into his presidency is something I haven't seen before.  Mr. Obama is in trouble.  He can't blame the public, although he will.  He needs help.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

MORE SERIOUS THAN WE'D THOUGHT – AT 10:13 A.M. ET:  More information on the latest airline bomb plot is being developed.  We knew it's serious.  Apparently, it's more serious than we'd thought, and more bombs may still be out there.  From London's Telegraph:

One of the two bombs mailed from Yemen and found on cargo jets in Dubai and Britain travelled on two passenger jets in the Middle East, according to a spokesman for Qatar Airways.

The airline spokesman said a package containing explosives hidden in a printer cartridge arrived in Qatar Airways' hub in Doha, on one of the carrier's flights from the Yemeni capital Sana'a.

It was then shipped on a separate Qatar Airways plane to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, where it was discovered by authorities late early on Friday. A second, similar package turned up in England East Midlands Airport.

Barack Obama's counter-terrorism adviser said the parcel bombs had been made by the same person as the device worn by the so-called "underwear bomber" who botched an attack over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009.
"I think that the indications are right now based on forensic analysis that the individual responsible for putting these devices together is the same," John Brennan told ABC's "This Week" programme.

COMMENT:  Scary stuff.  And we still aren't sure what the full intent of the plotters was.  The British prime minister says the bombs were built to go off in the air while aircraft were over cities.  But the bombs discovered so far were destined for synagogues in Chicago. 

One thing is certain:  They'll try again.  Eventually they'll succeed. 

It's impossible to know if this latest plot, an extremely serious one, will have an effect on our election.  It may well have been timed to influence voters.  So far, there seems no detectable political impact.

October 31, 2010       Permalink

CALIFORNIA MIRACLE? – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:  Something may be happening in California, aside from Mel Gibson having run-ins with the cops. 

RealClearPolitics has moved the Barbara Boxer/Carly Fiorina Senate race from "leans Democratic" to "toss up."  This is the first change in RCP's Senate predictions in days.  Those predictions now have a Senate of 48 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 7 toss ups. 

Please note that only a third of the Senate is up for election or reelection.  That means the GOP must make all its gains in 33 races. 

We have not seen any new polls that might have prompted the RCP move.  They must have some internal information, but it would be great to see Carly Fiorina pull it out.  Barbara Boxer not only couldn't win any Miss Congeniality contest.  She'd have trouble with Miss Barely Acceptable. 

We'll follow this.

October 31, 2010     Permalink

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2010

ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:47 P.M. ET:  Very little hard news to report tonight.  It's the last weekend of campaigning. 

There are, however, these things:

The Pennsylvania race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak, one of the most watched of the Senate races, appears to be tightening again.  Republican Toomey got a big scare about ten days ago, when a good part of his lead seemed to disappear.  Then he rallied.  A new tracker by Morning Call, though, shows him up only two points.  It had been seven a few days ago.  Could be statistical noise, but this is still a cliffhanger.

Democrats are encouraged by late pre-election-day voting in Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to fend off a challenge by Republican Sharron Angle.  There was a Democratic voting surge on Friday.  But observers caution that Angle's lead among independents may make the major difference on election day.  Another very close one.

Fox News sums up the overall picture: 

Once the dust settles on Election Day, Republicans could very well be in control of the House if not the Senate as well as most governorships across the country, benefiting from a wave of voter anger over the economy and profound pessimism about the future.

While big-state races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois and California remain intensely competitive into the campaign's final hours, the Democratic effort to retain control of the House is a lost cause, according to political strategists in both parties and public opinion polls.

Republicans must win 40 seats to gain control of the House and 10 to take the Senate. Most political analysts predict Republicans will win more than 50 seats in the House but under 10 in the Senate.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, predicts Republicans will capture the House but fall short in the Senate by two seats.

But he told Fox News that "the big surprise on election night could be a Republican takeover of the Senate because all six times since World War II when the House has split parties one way or the other, the Senate has flipped the very same way even when it could not be seen or predicted in advance."

"I've been through a lot of election nights, I can't remember one when the experts weren't surprised by a dozen or more races," he said.

COMMENT:  Remember that, under the Constitution, all money bills must originate in the House.  So GOP control of that body will probably end Obama's freewheeling spending programs.

And what will Obama do?  Press reports indicate he'll turn to federal regulations to try to get his program through without Congressional action.  It might work, although regulatory decisions are subject to court challenge.

If the GOP has, say, 47 seats in the Senate, up from its current 41, that is enough to filibuster objectionable bills to death, even if three or four defectors vote with the other side.  You need 60 votes to stop a filibuster, and the Dems will have only 53, assuming all their troops stay loyal.

Interesting times coming up.

October 30, 2010      Permalink

TERROR UPDATE – AT 8:23 P.M. ET:  An arrest has been made in the "toner bomb" plot, broken up yesterday.  And we learn more about the potential of the bombs involved.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — The authorities in Yemen on Saturday arrested a woman suspected of sending two powerful bombs on cargo planes bound for the United States, as the investigation into the terror plot continued to unfold on three continents...

...A defense lawyer who has been in contact with the Yemeni woman’s family confirmed the arrest, describing her as a 22 year-old engineering student at Sana University. She was arrested in her house along with her mother, who is 45, the lawyer, Abdul Rahman Barham said...

...As investigators conducted forensic analysis of the two bombs and tried to piece together a foiled terrorism plot, American officials said evidence was mounting that the top leadership of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, including the radical American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, was behind the attempted attacks.

And...

In further evidence that Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen is steadily improving its abilities to strike on American soil, American officials said Saturday that the powerful bombs were expertly constructed and unusually sophisticated...

...“The wiring of the device indicates that this was done by professionals,” said one official involved in the investigation, speaking on condition of anonymity because the inquiry was continuing. “It was set up so that if you scan it, all the printer components would look right.”

And...

Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain said on Saturday that the parcel bomb bound for the United States and intercepted in England was designed to explode while the plane was flying.

COMMENT:  More will come out.  Once again, a combination of luck and the good work of intelligence services saved us.  But it's only a matter of time before a plot succeeds.  These people are getting better and better, if the sophistication of the devices is used as a measure.

Oh, by the way, earlier this week Betty McCollum, the hard-left Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota, announced that al Qaeda was no threat to the United States.  And also, earlier this week, the head of British Airways said American airline screening was too rigorous.  Some people have an exquisite sense of timing.

October 30, 2010     Permalink

GOODBYE, WHEELS – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  I don't think it's fair to say that this marks decline, for products come and go.  But it certainly, for those of us of a certain age, marks transition.  From The New York Times:

DETROIT — Pontiac, the brand that invented the muscle car under its flamboyant engineer John Z. DeLorean, helped Burt Reynolds elude Sheriff Justice in “Smokey and the Bandit” and taught baby boomers to salivate over horsepower, but produced mostly forgettable cars for their children, will endure a lonely death on Sunday after about 40 million in sales. 

It was 84 years old. The cause of death was in dispute. Fans said Pontiac’s wounds were self-inflicted, while General Motors blamed a terminal illness contracted during last year’s bankruptcy. Pontiac built its last car nearly a year ago, but the official end was set for Oct. 31, when G.M.’s agreements with Pontiac dealers expire.

“They were C.P.R.-ing a corpse for a long time,” said Larry Kummer, a retired graphic artist who has owned more than two dozen Pontiacs and runs the Web site PontiacRegistry.com.

COMMENT:  Ah, the memories.  A Pontiac was my parents' first family car after World War II.  You had to wait months to get one.  It was a big red coupe with huge whitewall tires, and it had that classic Pontiac wide stripe right down the center of the hood, and down the trunk.  Of course, my parents immediately took a picture of me behind the wheel, even though I barely made it up to window height. 

And General Motors promised that, if we were good, and saved, we could "move up" next time to an Oldsmobile.  I think we did, but only after a couple of romances with Chrysler products. 

In those days most people we knew kept cars no more than three years, and had to change the oil every thousand miles.  An average car cost about $1,400.  Cars today are far better, and far safer, and the air conditioning system costs more than $1,400.

I'll miss the Pontys, especially that red model that came out the war plants that were rushed into conversion to produce cars for the masses.  No power steering.  No power brakes.  A tube radio that took forever to warm up while "The Lone Ranger" began his gallop on ABC, and a clock that, like most car clocks of the time, never worked. 

Gas:  Maybe twenty cents a gallon.

October 30, 200     Permalink

ELECTION LATEST – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  Some late developments from pollsters and observers:

Florida appears to be swinging heavily into the GOP column in the state's Senate race.  Marco Rubio is up by as much as 20 points over Charlie Crist.  If Rubio wins in a blowout Tuesday, he'll likely be first pick for the vice presidential slot on the 2012 GOP ticket. 

Joe Miller, the official GOP candidate for the Senate from Alaska, is in serious trouble, according to a new poll.  Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent senator, who lost the GOP nomination for her job to Miller, is surging as a write-in.  Sarah Palin went to Alaska to boost Miller, and, if Miller loses, it's a prestige blow to Palin.  Sarah will also be going to West Virginia to campaign for the GOP Senate candidate, John Raese, who is now slipping behind the popular Democratic governor, Joe Manchin, who is running as a staunch conservative who has barely heard of Barack Obama, or even Washington, D.C.

One thing about Sarah Palin – she puts herself on the line, and she can get burned.

Meanwhile, back at the executive mansion, Mr. Obama's approval rating has plunged to 41 percent in the latest Fox poll.  That is pathetic, and I think this latest drop may well involve resentment at the extent of the president's campaigning.  A few campaign trips, okay.  But this is getting nonstop, and involves vast public expenditures for Air Force The One, and extensive security.  And that doesn't include drinks and snacks.

October 30, 200       Permalink

THREE DAYS TO GO – at 8:40 a.m. ET:  There are questions as to whether yesterday's terror incident is truly over, or will extend through this weekend if more suspicious packages are found.

And with those questions inevitably come the assessments of how this incident might affect the outcome of Tuesday's elections.  Al Qaeda has struck just before election days in several countries, most notably in Spain in 2004, an attack on commuter trains that sent the pro-American government out of power and brought in a leftist government far less supportive of our war on terror. 

We said yesterday that we really didn't know how the incident will affect Tuesday's results, but that my hunch was that it would have no effect.  But watch for the possibility that the threat will continue, with new elements discovered, and Obama posing as commander-in-chief, possibly rushing back to Washington from a campaign trip.  Stranger things have happened in the last days of a campaign. 

Just make a note of the news coverage.  We have many Senate and House races with razor-thin margins.  Even Fox's Carl Cameron noted last night how many close races there are.  One incident, one factor, might move almost all of them in one direction on the last day.  This is inevitably speculation, but I wanted to bring it out.

October 30, 2010     Permalink